First of several posts wherein I look in my crystal ball and tell you what to expect in the coming year.
First of all, economics.
There are two possibilities as to the recession. The first, and likeliest, is that we are now into what is called an “L” shaped recovery. That means things are going to continue to improve, but slowly. It’ll be a few years before the economy gets back to where it was before the recession started. Unemployment will rise somewhat higher before it starts to come down. No catastrophe, but no great boom either.
I have many reasons for believing this is what is going to happen. Under this scenario, there are many opportunities for prosperity, doing pretty much the kinds of things that have worked for years. However, it is going to be more work. Not the least because of increased taxes and government regulation, a less optimistic outlook on the part of the population, and a continuing tight credit scene that will undoubtedly be accompanied by higher inflation than we’ve seen in a while.
The other possibility, which I consider less likely but can’t rule out, is what is called a “W” – meaning the improving scene we are currently experiencing is temporary and we are going in the next few months to fall off an economic cliff. I don’t expect it, but if it is coming, we should have a month or two warning. If it does occur, it will mean we really are in the worst economy since the Great Depression. If it happens, it will mean radical adjustments for many businesses and businessmen. If and when I see that coming I’ll talk about what it means for marketing.
In the meantime, given the way it looks to me, let me talk in Part 2 about Marketing in 2010.